E-commerce: from Minitel to voice purchases, a commercial revolution underway!

E-commerce, a true phenomenon of our digital age, has undergone a spectacular metamorphosis since its first hesitant steps in the 1970s. This commercial revolution, born in the shadow of the first computer networks, has gradually established itself as an essential pillar of the global economy. From its discreet origins to its current omnipresence, e-commerce has come a remarkable way, profoundly redefining our consumption habits and radically transforming the entrepreneurial landscape. This dazzling evolution, marked by incessant technological innovations and major societal changes, testifies to the adaptability and ingenuity of the business world in the face of the challenges of the digital age.

In this context of rapid change, it is appropriate to question the future prospects of e-commerce and its potential impact on consumer behavior. What will be the limits of this digital transformation of commerce, and to what extent will it redefine the shopping experience and customer expectations in the years to come?

The origins: from the beginnings to the first successes

The history of e-commerce dates back to the 1970s, with the creation of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI). This pioneering technology laid the foundation for modern electronic transactions. Indeed, EDI replaces physical exchanges of documents (such as orders, invoices, delivery notes) with electronic exchanges in a standardized format.

It was in 1979 that Michael Aldrich truly invented e-commerce, by connecting a modified television to a computer via a telephone line. His invention opened up companies' closed information systems to external correspondents, allowing not only transaction processing, but also electronic messaging and information retrieval. Aldrich saw videotex (interactive television technology) as a new universal means of communication, comparable to the telephone. This visionary innovation opened the way to a new mode of consumption and laid the foundations of the modern e-commerce ecosystem, revolutionizing the way we buy and sell goods.

Minitel

In France, it was the Minitel that played this pioneering role. As a reminder (and for the younger ones!), from the 1980s, this small terminal allowed users to make purchases online, notably via services such as the famous 3615. Department stores and mail order companies, such as La Redoute, quickly adopted this technology, offering consumers the possibility of consulting catalogs and placing orders directly from home. The secure payment system, integrated into telephone billing, helped to establish user confidence in electronic transactions. At its peak, commerce via Minitel generated an annual turnover of more than one billion euros. This experience familiarized the French with the concept of distance purchasing and laid the foundations of modern e-commerce, thus facilitating the transition to online sales platforms on the Internet in the 1990s and 2000s.

Amazon and eBay

On the other side of the Atlantic, the 1990s marked the explosion of consumer e-commerce. In 1995, two giants were born: Amazon and eBay (formerly AuctionWeb).

Amazon, founded by Jeff Bezos, started as an online bookstore before diversifying its offerings to become "the store where you can buy everything." Its strategy of constant innovation, notably with the launch of Amazon Prime in 2005, has transformed consumer expectations for fast delivery and customer service.

eBay, founded by Pierre Omidyar, popularized the concept of an online marketplace, allowing individuals and businesses to sell directly to a global audience. Its online auction system created a new form of dynamic commercial interaction.

These two platforms have not only redefined the online shopping experience, but have also contributed to the rise of the digital economy, profoundly influencing consumer habits worldwide. Today, Amazon and eBay continue to innovate, integrating technologies like AI and augmented reality to improve the user experience and maintain their dominant position in the e-commerce market.

The Golden Age: Exponential Growth and Innovations

The decade 2000-2010 marks a decisive turning point for e-commerce, propelling it to the heart of global consumption habits. This period sees the emergence of major technological innovations that radically transform the landscape of online commerce and digital advertising.

DoubleClick, founded in 1996, revolutionized online advertising by introducing sophisticated behavioral targeting tools. Its acquisition by Google in 2007 for $3.1 billion consolidated Google's dominant position in the digital advertising ecosystem. This acquisition allowed Google to offer integrated advertising solutions, ranging from planning to performance analysis, thus strengthening its hold on the market.

Google AdWords, launched in 2000, disrupted the traditional advertising model by introducing a real-time bidding system for text ads. This platform allowed advertisers to precisely target their audience based on the keywords searched, ushering in the era of contextual advertising. AdWords democratized access to online advertising, allowing even small businesses to compete with large groups on an equal footing.

Amazon Prime, introduced in 2005, redefined consumer expectations for delivery and customer service. For an annual subscription, members received free two-day shipping, setting a new industry standard. This innovation encouraged consumers to choose online shopping for speed and convenience, accelerating the mass adoption of e-commerce.

On the online payments side, we see the emergence of PayPal founded in 1998 under the name Confinity by Max Levchin, Peter Thiel and Luke Nosek, the company initially focused on developing security software for portable devices. It was not until 2000 when it merged with X.com , an online banking company created by Elon Musk, that PayPal was born. This merger marked a decisive turning point, directing the company towards online payment solutions. PayPal quickly experienced dazzling success, going public in 2002 before being bought the same year by eBay for $1.5 billion and then doing a "spin-off" in 2015 to become an independent Fintech company valued at more than $81 billion to date.

2000-2010 lays the foundations of the modern e-commerce ecosystem, these technological advances have profoundly changed the behavior of consumers and advertisers. Targeted and personalized advertising becomes the norm, offering better profitability to advertisers and a more relevant experience for users. At the same time, the promise of fast and reliable delivery removes one of the main obstacles to online shopping, contributing to the meteoric rise of e-commerce.

Emergence and evolution of social networks

This period also saw the emergence and rapid evolution of social networks such as Facebook (2004), Twitter (2006) which became X after the “turbulent” acquisition in 2022 by Elon Musk (yes, him again), and Instagram (2010), which radically transformed the landscape of digital marketing and online commerce. These platforms opened up new possibilities for direct consumer engagement and social commerce.

Facebook, with its Marketplace launched in 2016, is becoming a pioneer of social commerce, allowing brands to list their products and activate purchasing features directly on the platform.

Instagram, acquired by Facebook in 2012 for $1 billion, is rapidly evolving to incorporate shopping features, transforming the photo-sharing app into a powerful commerce platform.

TikTok, the new kid on the block, is growing at a rapid pace and is establishing itself as a major player in social commerce, particularly among Gen Z. These developments reflect a profound shift in consumer habits, with social networks becoming not only spaces for socializing but also preferred destinations for product discovery and online shopping. Companies are increasingly leveraging these platforms to build brand communities, drive digital word-of-mouth, and deliver immersive, personalized shopping experiences.

The rise of omnichannel: when physical meets digital (addendum)

French e-commerce has undergone a new revolution with the advent of drives and click and collect, marking the beginning of the omnichannel era. The first food drive in France was launched by Auchan in 2000 in Leers, near Lille. However, it was from 2007 that the concept really took off, with the opening of the first Chronodrive in Marcq-en-Barœul (as a reader of this article pointed out to me!). Click and collect, meanwhile, developed more widely from 2010, allowing customers to order online and pick up their purchases in store. Omnichannel, a strategy aimed at integrating all sales channels to offer a seamless customer experience, has become essential since 2015. Brands such as Fnac-Darty and Decathlon have been pioneers in this field, merging their online and in-store stocks to optimize product availability. This innovation marked a major step forward in optimizing delivery costs. This evolution has profoundly transformed the retail landscape, blurring the boundaries between online and in-store sales. It has offered consumers unprecedented flexibility in their purchasing journeys, while allowing brands to attract more customers to their physical stores. This omnichannel strategy has thus created a beneficial synergy between digital and physical, strengthening the attractiveness of traditional points of sale while improving the overall customer experience.

The last decade (2014-2024)

The last decade (2014-2024) has seen explosive growth in the e-commerce sector, radically transforming the global retail landscape. This period has seen a series of technological innovations and changes in consumer habits that have propelled e-commerce to the forefront of the global economy.

In 2014, global online sales were worth approximately $1.3 trillion. Since then, growth has been meteoric. By 2023, global online sales reached $5.82 trillion, marking a spectacular growth of nearly 350% over a decade. This upward trend continues, with projections indicating that global e-commerce sales will reach $6.33 trillion by 2024.

This exceptional progression can be explained by several key factors:

1. The rise of m-commerce: The mass adoption of smartphones and tablets has revolutionized the way consumers shop. By 2024, mobile sales are expected to reach $2.5 trillion, representing a significant share of the overall e-commerce market.

2. Improving logistics infrastructure: Companies have invested heavily in optimizing their supply and delivery chains, reducing lead times and improving customer satisfaction.

3. The emergence of new technologies: Artificial intelligence, augmented reality and advanced personalization have significantly improved the online shopping experience.

4. The COVID-19 pandemic: The health crisis has accelerated the adoption of online commerce, pushing many consumers to buy online for the first time and permanently transforming purchasing habits.

5. The expansion of marketplaces: Platforms like Amazon, Alibaba and eBay continued to dominate the market, offering an ever-increasing variety of products and services.

6. Growth in emerging markets: Countries like India, Brazil and Indonesia have seen rapid growth in their e-commerce sectors, contributing significantly to the overall expansion.

The meteoric rise of marketplaces and retail media

The last decade has seen the explosion of marketplaces and the emergence of retail media, two phenomena that are redefining the e-commerce landscape.

Marketplaces, these platforms allowing multiple sellers to offer their products, have experienced dizzying growth. Amazon, the undisputed leader, saw its global market share reach 50% in 2021. In France, players such as Cdiscount or Fnac-Darty have also successfully developed their own marketplaces, diversifying their offer and increasing their attractiveness.

At the same time, retail media has established itself as a major new advertising channel. This concept, which consists of monetizing the audience and data of e-commerce sites with brands, was pioneered by Amazon Advertising. In 2023, the retail media market reached $45 billion in the United States, and is expected to exceed $100 billion by 2026. In Europe, the digital retail media market is estimated at €14.3 billion in 2024.

This convergence between commerce and advertising offers brands a unique opportunity to reach consumers as close as possible to the act of purchase. For retailers, it is a source of additional high-margin revenue, with rates that can reach 70 to 90%. Advertisers, for their part, benefit from privileged access to retailers' first-hand data, a major asset in a context of the gradual disappearance of third-party cookies.

However, this development also raises questions about the concentration of power in the e-commerce sector and the protection of consumer data. It also pushes traditional retail players to rethink their digital strategies to remain competitive in this new ecosystem.

In 2024 and beyond, we expect to see even broader adoption of retail media, including in the B2B sector, as well as increasing integration of artificial intelligence to deliver ever more personalized and powerful advertising experiences.

This meteoric rise of e-commerce has not only revolutionized retail, but has also profoundly impacted many aspects of our society. The job market has undergone a significant change, with the emergence of new professions related to digital and logistics. Urban infrastructures have had to adapt to meet the demands of last-mile delivery, transforming the landscape of our cities. New distribution models, such as dark stores and micro-hubs, have emerged, redrawing the map of urban commerce.

Towards 2030: “wild guess” for the future of e-commerce

As we enter this new decade, e-commerce seems poised to continue its upward trajectory, driven by promising technological innovations. Voice commerce, enabled by the ubiquity of virtual assistants, promises to further simplify the act of purchasing. Virtual and augmented reality are poised to radically transform the customer experience, offering previously unimaginable possibilities for trying on and viewing. Finally, the Internet of Things suggests a future where our connected devices will anticipate our needs and make purchases autonomously.

If we wanted to bet on the future of online commerce and its new "normal", it would be:

1. A titanic market: Experts predict that the global e-commerce market will reach $5.5 trillion by 2030. This growth will be driven by the emergence of new markets in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and Africa.

2. The era of m-commerce: By 2030, nearly 73% of online sales will be made via mobile devices. Businesses will absolutely have to optimize their platforms for a seamless and intuitive mobile experience.

3. Ubiquitous artificial intelligence: AI will revolutionize the customer experience, with ultra-personalized recommendations and 24/7 customer service thanks to intelligent chatbots.

4. Augmented reality at the heart of the purchase: Consumers will be able to virtually "try" products before purchasing (which is, for example, already the case in Beauty Tech "because women are worth it!" 😉), thus reducing returns and increasing customer satisfaction.

5. Voice commerce on the rise: With the democratization of voice assistants, voice-activated purchases will become commonplace.

6. Sustainable e-commerce: Consumers will favor eco-responsible brands, pushing companies to adopt more sustainable practices in their supply chain and logistics.

7. The fusion of physical and digital: Omnichannel will reach its peak, with seamless integration between online and in-store shopping experiences.

A promising but challenging future

E-commerce is at a crucial crossroads, facing immense opportunities but also complex challenges. While growth prospects are enticing, the sector must urgently address several major issues to ensure sustainable and responsible development.

Eco-responsibility: an essential issue

E-commerce suffers from an unflattering ecological reputation, for several reasons:

• Overconsumption encouraged by incessant promotions

• The proliferation of single-use packaging

• The carbon impact of deliveries, particularly with the development of the “last mile”

• Massive product returns, generating waste and pollution

These practices, fueled by growing consumer demands for speed and flexibility, are no longer sustainable in a climate emergency context.

The complex equation of customer satisfaction

The real challenge for e-commerce players will be to reconcile three apparently contradictory imperatives:

1. Meeting ever-increasing customer expectations for shopping experience and service

2. Staying competitive in an ultra-competitive and constantly changing market

3. Adopt eco-responsible practices at all levels of the value chain

This complex equation requires a profound overhaul of economic and operational models. Companies will have to innovate to offer an impeccable customer experience while minimizing their environmental impact. This could involve:

• Adopting green technologies to optimize logistics

• The development of sustainable and reusable packaging

• Promoting responsible consumption among customers

• Integrating the circular economy into business processes

A strategic imperative

Taking these issues into account is no longer optional but has become a strategic imperative for companies wishing to prosper in e-commerce. Consumers, increasingly aware of environmental issues, are choosing brands that are aligned with their values. The companies that succeed in finding this delicate balance between customer satisfaction, competitiveness and eco-responsibility will be those that will establish themselves as the leaders of tomorrow. This transformation requires a strong commitment from managers, placing these issues at the heart of their strategy and corporate culture. Ultimately, the future of e-commerce lies in its ability to reinvent itself to become a driver of sustainable and responsible growth. This is a major challenge, but also a unique opportunity to redefine the contours of the commerce of the future.

And you, what are your predictions for the future of e-commerce? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.